BBC Preview: Cubs thrive on home cooking

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 14 Fantasy Forecaster!

I don't know about you, but few things frustrate me more in the Baseball Challenge than picking the lineup I want, only to find at the end I'm a buck over the limit.

(Quick side note: Technically I mean $100,000 over, since as it says in the rules, it's a $50.0 million cap. But I like calling it "a buck" because it sounds snappy. Might have been as fun to say I was one "meeeeellion" dollars over. Whatever you tend to call it, I'm referring to the misfortune of being "$0.1" over.)

It's a tough spot in which to be, or at least I think so since I'm not so cavalier as to regard lineup-picking as simply "Oh, I'm over the limit, I'll just take the next-highest-priced guy in right field." That's not a winning strategy; I'd rather pick the guys I want for maximum point potential, leaving eight bucks (or eight thousand, or million, or whatever) on the table, than using up my entire $50.0 cap.

That's especially true in a week like this, the last one in Segment 1 of the BBC. That's right; after this week a champion will be crowned, salaries will be reset (though be forewarned not to Opening Day prices per se) and we'll start anew. To that end, I might be out of the title race for this segment, but "deasyjj," make no mistake, I'm coming to getcha in Segment 2.

Still, behind in the race in this segment or not, I'm not about to play dead this final week. So with that in mind, here are some of the juiciest tidbits I discovered while attempting to address the dollar-over problem. Hopefully they'll help you in your title run as much as they did me:

• Derrek Lee has batted .325 with eight home runs, 25 RBIs and a 1.049 OPS in his past 22 games. Six of the homers and 16 of the RBIs have come in the past five of those that were played at Wrigley Field … and the Cubs play all seven of their games at home this week.

• Brian McCann has amassed 43 BBC points in 10 career games at Coors Field and, barring a rainout messing with Colorado's rotation, will miss the only left-handed starter the Rockies have (Jorge De La Rosa) during their four-game series.

• The top four players in BBC points since June 1 are no surprise -- Albert Pujols (166), Prince Fielder (146), Hanley Ramirez (136) and Ryan Braun (132) -- but the No. 5 name might be: B.J. Upton (130).

• Since June 15, Juan Rivera (73) has the seventh-most BBC points, tied with teammate Bobby Abreu for the honor.

• The top 10 players in BBC points earned in home games who also are scheduled to spend the entire Week 14 at home are: Justin Morneau (179 in 38 games), Mark Reynolds (179 in 41), Carlos Pena (179 in 39), Prince Fielder (160 in 40), Torii Hunter (155 in 36), Miguel Cabrera (153 in 33), Hunter Pence (150 in 40), Ben Zobrist (148 in 35), Michael Cuddyer (147 in 35) and Justin Upton (145 in 39).

• On the flip side, the top 10 players in BBC points earned in road games who are scheduled to spend all of Week 14 on the road: Adrian Gonzalez (174 in 38 games), Victor Martinez (162 in 39), Adam Dunn (160 in 38), Marco Scutaro (148 in 37), Vernon Wells (146 in 37), Adam Lind (143 in 37), Ryan Zimmerman (141 in 38), James Loney (138 in 38), Aaron Hill (136 in 37) and Shin-Soo Choo (134 in 37).

• Andre Ethier has averaged a respectable 3.9 BBC points since June 6, and he has historically performed better in games when Manny Ramirez is in the lineup. The Dodgers also face six right-handed starting pitchers this week.

• Speaking of Ramirez, he hit two home runs in the only three-game series he has ever played in Milwaukee's Miller Park, where the Dodgers will visit this week.

• The eight pitching staffs that have allowed the most BBC points to opposing hitters this season, in order, are the Indians, Orioles, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Yankees and Padres. Two teams play games only against opponents from that group of terrible pitching staffs in Week 14: The Diamondbacks and Giants, who each play a full slate of home games versus the Marlins and Padres.

• The eight pitching staffs that have allowed the fewest BBC points to opposing hitters are the Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, Reds and Red Sox. The Mets are one of three teams to face only teams from this group, and they draw the short end of the stick because they'll play six games at Citi Field, which suppresses home runs, versus the Dodgers and Reds. The Cubs (versus Braves and Cardinals) and Brewers (versus Cardinals and Dodgers) are the other two, but they also play entirely at home, in more hitting-friendly environments.

Tristan's top three pitching-staff values

1. Boston Red Sox (OAK-3, KC-4 -- two-start pitchers John Smoltz and Josh Beckett), 7.2 price tag: Few pitchers have been as successful as Beckett in the past seven weeks; he's 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his past nine starts during that span. But Beckett alone doesn't drive this staff; the Red Sox's current five starting pitchers are a combined 12-5 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 23 starts since June 1. Neither of these opponents sports a threatening offense, so I don't see any more bullpen meltdowns in this team's immediate future.

2. San Francisco Giants (FLA-3, SD-4 -- two-start pitchers Matt Cain and Barry Zito), 6.4: About the only thing that could make this staff look more attractive for the week would be if it were Tim Lincecum, not Zito, getting two starts. Still, Cain getting two starts is plenty, considering he's 7-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his past 11 starts and will be pitching at home, where he has never registered a full-season ERA higher than 3.66 in his five-year career. The whole staff dominates at AT&T Park; the Giants rank third in the majors in home ERA (3.24), fourth in home WHIP (1.25) and sixth in opponents' OPS at home (.677).

3. Chicago Cubs (ATL-3, STL-4 -- two-start pitchers Randy Wells and Ryan Dempster), 6.6: Speaking of staffs that dominate at home, the Cubs always seem to pitch well at Wrigley Field in spite of the ballpark's hitting-friendly nature. Consider that their current five starters are a combined 77-43 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 180 games (177 starts) at Wrigley between this and last season, Ted Lilly leading the way with 24 wins at home with Dempster close behind with 22. Plus, the weekend's series is a critical one in the division race, and to you daily BBC players, keep in mind that Sunday's game is a doubleheader -- so double the point potential!

Daily dips

Monday, July 6: Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates (versus Brian Moehler), 5.0 price tag: He's already 2-for-4 with one home run and two walks against Moehler this season, both of the outs long fly balls to center field. For his career, LaRoche is a .385 hitter (10-for-26) with three doubles, two homers and five walks against the right-hander. He's also a .361 hitter with two homers and six RBIs in 10 games at Minute Maid Park between this and last season.

Tuesday, July 7: Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs (versus Javier Vazquez), 4.5: He's a lifetime .396 hitter (21-for-53) versus Vazquez, with seven doubles, three home runs, 16 RBIs and a 1.109 OPS. He's also a .325 hitter with 39 home runs, 115 RBIs and a .955 OPS in 183 games at Wrigley Field since the beginning of 2007.

Wednesday, July 8: Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers (versus Ervin Santana), 3.6: This one plays more to the season-long struggles Santana has endured than Davis' talent, though Davis is 3-for-8 (.375 BA) with one double, two home runs and one walk in his career against the right-hander. He's also a .364 hitter with two homers and a 1.254 OPS in seven career games at Angel Stadium.

Thursday, July 9: Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians (versus John Danks), 3.0: He's a lifetime .381 hitter (8-for-21) versus Danks, with one double, four home runs and two walks, one of the homers coming this season. He's also a .354 hitter with four homers, 14 RBIs and a .952 OPS in 22 career games at U.S. Cellular Field.

Friday, July 10: Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks (versus Ricky Nolasco), 4.4: These two squared off in three separate games in 2008, and in them, Drew was 5-for-10 with one double and two home runs versus the right-hander. He's also a .310 hitter with an .891 OPS in 108 home games between this and last season.

Saturday, July 11: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (versus Gil Meche), 4.5: He's a .391 hitter (9-for-23) with one double, four home runs and 10 RBIs in his career against Meche. He's also performing much closer to his former MVP self of late, batting .313 with seven homers, 18 RBIs and a 1.023 OPS in 25 games since June 1.

Sunday, July 12: Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians (versus Armando Galarraga), 4.5: In these players' May 1 meeting, Sizemore was 1-for-1 with a walk and a sacrifice fly, bringing his career numbers against Galarrara to a .438 batting average (7-for-16), two doubles, three home runs and two walks.

Tristan's Week 14 lineup

Total points: 3,526 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 95.7. Overall rank: 2,411th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 177th.

C: Brian McCann, Braves (@CHC-3, @COL-4), locked at a 4.1 price tag, 4.2 market price: One hot catcher. Two hitter-friendly ballparks. Seven games versus right-handed starting pitchers. Prediction: Thousands of happy BBC owners.
1B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (KC-3, CLE-3), locked at 5.3, 5.6 market: He has a 1.176 OPS in home games, third-best in the majors.
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (OAK-3, KC-4), 4.5: He batted .325 during Boston's recent nine-game road trip. Hey, maybe it's the start of a hot streak.
3B: Pablo Sandoval, Giants (FLA-3, SD-4), 4.8: If you're going to take my advice about the Giants from the note above about their opponents, Sandoval is their most obvious choice. His 1.081 home OPS ranks him in baseball's top 10.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@SF-3, @ARI-4), locked at 5.0, 5.3 market: If you've been paying attention for the past week, there's no explanation needed.
LF: Ryan Braun, Brewers (STL-3, LAD-3), locked at 4.8, 5.9 market: I'm not about to dish my two hottest hitters; Ramirez and Braun stick around.
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (OAK-3, KC-4), 4.3: The position at which I was most frustrated to be $0.1 over in my initial lineup, as this was Grady Sizemore originally. Now it's Ellsbury, giving my lineup a distinct Red Sox flair.
RF: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (SD-3, FLA-4), 5.8: Home games, weak opponents. Plenty to like here.
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox (OAK-3, KC-4), locked at 4.2, 4.5 market: You've read his recent numbers above, and the matchups are excellent.
Pitching staff: Red Sox (OAK-3, KC-4), 7.2.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.